After falling to a seventh defeat in eight matches in the form of a 1-0 loss at home to Stevenage on Easter Monday, Bristol Rovers’ hopes of avoiding relegation to League Two are looking increasingly slim. If this season does end with what is now looking almost inevitable, they will have only themselves to blame.
On March 11, an outstanding performance saw Rovers beat Bolton Wanderers 3-2 at the Mem, just three days on from winning 1-0 against Huddersfield Town. That put Rovers onto 42 points and a position of nine clear of the relegation zone with 10 matches remaining. Even the most pessimistic Gasheads would not have expected just one point to come from the next eight games.
The Gas can no longer finish on 50 points, which has proven to be the magic total clubs need to survive in League One on the majority of past occasions. They now have to hope that they can first, win their final two matches against a play-off chasing Reading and a Blackpool side resigned to midtable obscurity, and then pray that 49 points will be enough to finish ahead of Burton Albion. After such a poor run of form, confidence is extremely scarce.
The only consistent factor of Rovers’ campaign has been their ability to produce abject, spineless performances - yet the nature of Monday’s defeat was still somewhat surprising. After stopping their rot with a hard-earned point at Wrexham with a solid performance away from home, the Pirates offered very little fight or determination in a must-win match three days later.
That prompted major rumblings of discontent from home supporters who made their feelings towards the team that they have supported throughout a terrible campaign. It was almost as if any withheld emotion from 9,000 supporters spilled out at once. Even the most optimistic Gashead would now have a tough time putting together a compelling enough case that Rovers will be playing League One football next season.
Regardless of the if’s, but’s and maybe’s of the relegation battle and the Gas’ head-to-head battle with Burton, when it has truly mattered, Inigo Calderon’s men have rarely shown up. Two home games branded “must-wins” against teams with virtually nothing but pride left to play for within the space of nine days have put more nails in the proverbial League One coffin.
It isn’t fully-bolted yet, but it would take an unlikely series of events now for Rovers to be playing in third tier next campaign.
There is plenty that we have said repeatedly in recent weeks, but here are some of the stand-out talking points after the Stevenage loss
Another carbon copy defeat
Bristol Rovers’ struggles coming from behind to get results this season have been well-documented - and it was exactly the same case on Monday.
Against Wrexham, it was noted just how important the fact that Rovers had taken the lead through Taylor Moore was in their attempt to get a result. Had they scored the first goal against Stevenage and the Gas, based on their record holding onto leads, would have likely come away with the three points.
It is such fine margins but reflects the mental fragility within the group. Going behind virtually condemns this team to defeat. What makes that sentence even more frustrating is how early the goals are being scored.
Timing of goals during eight-game winless run when Rovers concede first
Lincoln City - 31st minute
Crawley Town - 19th minute
Mansfield Town - 1st minute
Birmingham City - 3rd minute
Bolton Wanderers - 76th minute
Exeter City - 11th minute
Stevenage - 12th minute
In Rovers’ last four home matches, not only have they conceded first, they have shipped the first goal within the first 12 minutes. Additionally, the goals have often been the opponent’s first opportunity.
Like against Exeter, the Gas started brightly on Monday, conceded against the run of play, and failed to respond. Even though they conceded just one goal, they still couldn’t get a result.
Reading on Saturday is the final chance to demonstrate and prove to supporters that they do care. They have to go into that final day trip to Blackpool with a degree of hope and optimism.
Striker shortage remains glaring
If Bristol Rovers do go down, of course it will be of their own doing - but they haven’t been helped with injuries up top.
The strike partnership of Ruel Sotiriou and Gatlin O’Donkor has bore limited fruit and was not helped when the former had to come off injured with a suspected ankle problem. Inigo Calderon admitted post-match that he didn’t know the severity of the issue but if the 24-year-old is ruled out of the final two matches, it would add to the major misfortune the Gas have had in attack.
Promise Omochere looked sharp upon his return in December, only to pick up another injury that kept him out for two months. The striker managed just three matches before being ruled out for the remainder of the season, ending his first season in north Bristol with just 22 league appearances.
Meanwhile, well over a year of too much reliance on 36-year-old Chris Martin eventually took its toll as the striker picked up a knee injury. It is no coincidence that his final appearance came in Rovers’ last win against Bolton, in which he scored twice.
If Sotiriou has played his final game of the season, then 20-year-old Gatlin O’Donkor, who doesn’t look fit, 19-year-old Michael Reindorf, who hasn’t played since February 22, and 17-year-old Ollie Dewsbury would be the only remaining options. Admittedly, Jevani Brown is understood to be fit and training after returning from his loan spell at Notts County prematurely. The 30-year-old hasn’t played for the Gas in a competitive match since the final day of last season, almost a whole year ago.
Fans starting to turn on Inigo Calderon
At the start of his time in charge, much-improved home performances and results, along with an infectious personality you cannot help but be fond of, saw Inigo Calderon build strong rapport with Gasheads. Away form remained poor and kept Bristol Rovers in the relegation battle, but it always looked as though the Spaniard was building something.
Whether that was a new-manager bounce or something else - that is now gone. Any positive feeling has evaporated as a result of this run of seven defeats in eight games and, at the same time, it seems as though most supporters have made up their minds that Calderon is not the man to take this club forward.
There is no doubt that the 43-year-old was dealt a bad hand when taking this job. His predecessor had declared that he believed a different manager would still struggle with this squad and, ultimately, he has been proven right. Injuries have been costly too and rumours of alleged interference from above have not gone away. However, the risk of going for a young, exciting, well thought of coach with no senior management experience ultimately has not yet paid off.
Chants of “you don’t know what you’re doing” from home fans post-match aimed in the direction of Calderon, as well as his players, was tough to watch, but reflected how plenty of supporters have run out of patience with the head coach.
Too many times, especially on Monday, the Rovers boss has looked helpless on the touchline and you cannot help but feel sorry for the man who has taken a desperately difficult first job in senior management. However, regardless of whatever factors have gone against the Pirates over the past six weeks, to be relegated after having 42 points with 10 matches remaining would be totally unacceptable.
It is worth noting to fans who are voicing discontent that Calderon signed a two-and-a-half year deal in December. However, there is now a lack of confidence amongst supporters that the Spaniard could either lead progress in League One after a fortunate escape from relegation or, if Rovers were to drop into League Two, guide them out of the fourth tier at the first time of asking.
Calls to make a change in the dugout with two matches remaining are absurd when the situation is already out of their own hands. However, those two games are frankly huge for Calderon and his side.
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Relegation on the brink of inevitability
A fifth consecutive defeat at home against Reading on Saturday, and an eighth in nine games, would undoubtedly put Bristol Rovers on the brink of relegation. Most fans would suggest that it is already a foregone conclusion, but Burton’s 2-1 defeat to Birmingham City meant that, like on Good Friday, nothing changed in terms of the gap between the two.
Still, only goal difference separates Rovers and the Brewers but it’s the latter’s game in hand and far superior goal difference that keeps the situation out of the Gas’ hands.
Even Crawley Town aren’t yet out of it completely, sitting on 40 points from 44 matches, three behind the Pirates.
Even if the Gas win their remaining two matches, they will have to rely on Burton getting no more than five points from three games - home clashes against Cambridge United and Wigan Athletic along with a trip to Charlton Athletic.
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However, defeat to Reading in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off would mean that Burton would need only four points from those three games to confirm survival. After the way in which their team played against Stevenage, hosting a play-off chasing Royals side doesn’t reinstall much confidence, although Rovers’ record against higher placed teams is oddly decent.
After losing two must-win matches, if the Gas are to survive relegation it will now be more down to capitulation from Burton as opposed to strong form from Rovers.
Despite personal opinion, you cannot call relegation inevitable yet with two games still in the schedule. However, failure to win on Saturday, and the Gas will be seemingly on the brink of dropping into League Two.